Aura Revenue

Aura Revenue Forecasting Methodology

Aura Revenue uses a transparent monthly recurring revenue model. The calculator is built for education and scenario planning, not for guaranteed financial prediction.

Core Monthly Formula

Each month is calculated as: ending MRR = starting MRR + new MRR - churned MRR.

New MRR is starting MRR multiplied by the monthly growth rate. Churned MRR is starting MRR multiplied by the monthly churn rate. Ending MRR becomes the next month starting MRR. ARR run rate is ending MRR multiplied by twelve. Total forecast revenue is the sum of projected ending MRR across the selected months.

Assumptions Used

  • Starting MRR is the current recurring revenue base.
  • Monthly growth represents recurring revenue added relative to the starting MRR for that month.
  • Monthly churn represents recurring revenue lost relative to the starting MRR for that month.
  • The same growth and churn assumptions repeat throughout the forecast period.
  • Annual recurring revenue is shown as an annualized run rate, not guaranteed annual collections.

What the Calculator Does Not Account For

The public calculator does not model taxes, refunds, failed payments, payment processing fees, discounts, seasonality, one-time implementation revenue, sales capacity, customer acquisition cost, cash timing, contract renewal dates, revenue recognition rules, or custom enterprise contract terms unless you manually adjust the inputs to approximate those effects.

For a more complete operating model, use the SaaS revenue forecast template and separate new MRR, expansion MRR, contraction MRR, and churned MRR.

Limitations

There is no guarantee of future revenue. Forecast accuracy depends on the quality of the assumptions entered. Actual performance can differ because of product changes, competitive pressure, pricing changes, market demand, macroeconomic conditions, customer behavior, and execution.

Aura Revenue provides educational forecasting tools and examples only. Outputs are estimates based on user-provided assumptions and should not be treated as financial, legal, tax, accounting, or investment advice.

The methodology is related to concepts explained in the guides on MRR, churn, net revenue retention, and SaaS revenue forecasting.

Formula-heavy guides

For more context on the formulas behind the model, read the guides on MRR vs ARR, gross revenue retention vs net revenue retention, CAC payback, burn multiple, and Rule of 40.

You can also use the SaaS calculator toolkit for single-metric calculations such as ARR run rate, churn, NRR, and burn multiple.

Update History

  • April 28, 2026: clarified formula, assumptions, exclusions, and educational disclaimer.
  • April 28, 2026: added crawlable methodology page and internal links to related SaaS finance guides.